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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."